作者：Duan, Z., Gao, W., Kong, X., et al.

Cultural eutrophication has triggered lake regime shifts and cyanobacterial blooms, causing losses of key ecosystem services (e.g., water supply) and necessitating costly remediation. While nutrient enrichment generally is a primary driver, insufficient insight into biotic-hydrological stressor interactions may result in an overreliance on nutrient reduction as the sole intervention. Focusing on China's subtropical eutrophic Lake Dianchi, we applied an innovative coupled hydrodynamic-ecological model to identify key drivers of ecosystem degradation. This approach uniquely involved simulating multiple restoration strategies across eight degradation scenarios, 28 climate change scenarios, and over 100 regulatory scenarios, offering a comprehensive analysis of potential solutions. Our results identify the synergistic effects of grass carp introduction and elevated water levels as key drivers of the observed clear-to-turbid regime shift in the 1970s. Subsequently, fluctuations in nutrient loading became dominant drivers of eutrophication and cyanobacterial blooms. We further show that restoring a clear-water state with submerged macrophytes would optimally require a multidimensional strategy: 63% nutrient loading reduction (76% under simulated climate change conditions), 1.5 m water level lowering, and similar to 80% benthivorous fish removal over three consecutive summers. Our study demonstrates that combining biotic, hydrological, and nutrient management outperforms single-factor manipulations, underscoring the importance of resilience-building through integrated, multidimensional interventions.

人为富营养化引发了湖泊状态转变和蓝藻水华，导致关键生态系统服务（如供水）的丧失，并需要耗费巨资进行修复。虽然营养物质富集通常是主要驱动因素，但对生物-水文胁迫因子相互作用的了解不足，可能导致人们过度依赖减少营养物质这一单一干预措施。以中国亚热带富营养化的滇池为研究对象，我们应用了创新的水动力-生态耦合模型来识别生态系统退化的关键驱动因素。这种方法的独特之处在于，它在8种退化情景、28种气候变化情景和100多种调控情景下模拟了多种恢复策略，为潜在解决方案提供了全面分析。研究结果表明，20世纪70年代观察到的湖泊从清澈到浑浊的状态转变，其关键驱动因素是草鱼的引入与水位升高的协同作用。随后，营养负荷的波动成为富营养化和蓝藻水华的主导驱动因素。我们进一步发现，要通过沉水植物恢复湖泊的清水状态，最理想的是采取多维度策略：连续三个夏季减少63%的营养负荷（在模拟的气候变化条件下需减少76%）、降低1.5米水位，以及去除约80%的底栖鱼类。我们的研究表明，将生物管理、水文管理和营养物质管理相结合，其效果优于单一因素调控，这凸显了通过综合性、多维度干预措施来增强生态系统韧性的重要性。

（来源：Environmental Science & Technology  2026    DOI:10.1021/acs.est.5c11422）