作者：Wang, X., Chen, W., Zhang, G., Emmer, A., Frey, H., Taylor, C., Huggel, C., Sattar, A., Zheng, G., Rashid, I., Carrivick, J., Veh, G., Allen, S., Steiner, J., Quincey, D. & Mergili, M.

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are among the most severe cryospheric hazards in the Himalaya. While previous studies have primarily focused on the characteristics and causes of GLOFs, strategies for mitigating their disaster impacts remain underexplored. This study introduces China's Glacial Lake Management System (GLMS) and evaluates its potential for regional replication in reducing damage caused by GLOFs. We find that while GLOF frequency shows a statistically insignificant decrease from 1990 to 2023, downstream damage has intensified, yet appears relatively mitigated within China across the Himalaya following the implementation of the GLMS. Further hydrodynamic modelling suggests that glacial lakes will continue to expand in the future, with total growth expected to triple relative to the 2000-2020 period. These expansions could increase GLOF exposure by over 27% for high-risk lakes and by more than 40% in regions outside China without targeted interventions. However, implementing GLMS engineering measures could reduce the intensity of future floods by 24%, with even greater reductions outside China-29% compared to 21% within China. Building on China's lake management experience and recognizing the transboundary nature of GLOFs, the comprehensive framework we propose for region-wide glacial lake risk reduction across the Himalaya integrates engineering measures, early warning systems, and community responses. This framework addresses the urgent need for proactive and coordinated mitigation strategies in densely populated high-mountain regions. (c) 2025 Science China Press. Published by Elsevier B.V. and Science China Press. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.

冰川湖溃决洪水（GLOFs）是喜马拉雅地区最严重的冰冻圈灾害之一。以往研究主要聚焦于GLOFs的特征和成因，而减轻其灾害影响的策略仍未得到充分探索。本研究介绍了中国的冰川湖管理系统（GLMS），并评估了其在区域内推广以减少GLOFs所致损失的潜力。我们发现，尽管1990年至2023年间GLOF的发生频率在统计上未呈现显著下降，但下游损失却有所加剧；不过，在GLMS实施后，整个喜马拉雅地区中国境内的损失似乎得到了相对缓解。进一步的水动力模拟显示，未来冰川湖将继续扩张，总增长量预计将达到2000–2020年期间的三倍。在没有针对性干预的情况下，这些扩张可能使高风险湖泊的GLOF暴露度增加27%以上，中国以外地区增幅更超过40%。然而，实施GLMS工程措施可将未来洪水的强度降低24%，且中国境外的降幅更大——达到29%，而中国境内为21%。基于中国的湖泊治理经验并认识到GLOFs的跨界性质，我们提出了一个面向整个喜马拉雅地区的冰川湖风险综合削减框架，该框架整合了工程措施、早期预警系统和社区响应。这一框架回应了在人口稠密的高山地区开展前瞻性、协调一致减灾策略的迫切需求。

（来源：Science Bulletin 2026 Issue 1  DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2025.11.024）