作者：Duan, Z., Gao, W., Kong, X., Macisaac, H., Jeppesen, E., Hilt, S., Hamilton, D., Wilhelm, S., Mckay, R., Zhang, Y., Qin, B., Liu, Y., Wang, H., Pan, M., Xia, T., Wu, F., Paerl, H. & Chang, X.

Cultural eutrophication has triggered lake regime shifts and cyanobacterial blooms, causing losses of key ecosystem services (e.g., water supply) and necessitating costly remediation. While nutrient enrichment generally is a primary driver, insufficient insight into biotic-hydrological stressor interactions may result in an overreliance on nutrient reduction as the sole intervention. Focusing on China's subtropical eutrophic Lake Dianchi, we applied an innovative coupled hydrodynamic-ecological model to identify key drivers of ecosystem degradation. This approach uniquely involved simulating multiple restoration strategies across eight degradation scenarios, 28 climate change scenarios, and over 100 regulatory scenarios, offering a comprehensive analysis of potential solutions. Our results identify the synergistic effects of grass carp introduction and elevated water levels as key drivers of the observed clear-to-turbid regime shift in the 1970s. Subsequently, fluctuations in nutrient loading became dominant drivers of eutrophication and cyanobacterial blooms. We further show that restoring a clear-water state with submerged macrophytes would optimally require a multidimensional strategy: 63% nutrient loading reduction (76% under simulated climate change conditions), 1.5 m water level lowering, and similar to 80% benthivorous fish removal over three consecutive summers. Our study demonstrates that combining biotic, hydrological, and nutrient management outperforms single-factor manipulations, underscoring the importance of resilience-building through integrated, multidimensional interventions.

人为富营养化已引发湖泊稳态转换和蓝藻水华，导致供水等关键生态系统服务的丧失，并迫使采取代价高昂的修复措施。虽然营养盐富集通常是主要驱动因子，但对生物-水文胁迫因子相互作用的认识不足，可能导致过度依赖单一的营养盐削减干预手段。本研究以中国亚热带富营养化湖泊滇池为对象，应用创新的耦合水动力-生态模型，识别生态系统退化的关键驱动因素。该方法的独特之处在于模拟了跨越8种退化情景、28种气候变化情景和100余种调控情景下的多种修复策略，为潜在解决方案提供了全面的分析。研究结果表明，草鱼引入与高水位运行的协同效应是20世纪70年代观测到的由清到浊稳态转换的关键驱动力。此后，营养盐负荷的波动成为富营养化和蓝藻水华的主导驱动力。我们进一步揭示，恢复以沉水植物为主的清水状态需要多维策略的最优组合：连续三个夏季削减63%的营养盐负荷（在模拟气候变化条件下为76%）、降低水位1.5米以及移除约80%的底栖食性鱼类。本研究表明，生物、水文和营养盐管理的组合措施优于单因子调控，凸显了通过综合性、多维度干预增强系统恢复力的重要性。

（来源：Environmental Science & Technology 2026 Issue 4  DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.5c11422）